Vote-Shifting During the 2018 November Election
Each Election cycle, political watchers in San Diego are treated to the same process: As initial vote returns are posted shortly after 8pm on Election Night, conclusions are quickly arrived at, winners are declared, and narratives begin to form.
However, as subsequent days following the Election continue to show, the results on Election Night are far from final, and the political landscape looks vastly different when the results are certified.
Accordingly, this analysis of voter data in San Diego County for the November 2018 Election attempts to place a greater perspective on just how far vote totals can move throughout the vote-counting process. While many of us have tracked the daily movement of votes between candidates as they are posted by the Registrar of Voters, there have been few, if any, aggregate studies of vote tallies over the 30-day process.
This analysis seeks to rectify that issue by examining the aggregate movement of vote counts for the entire county, while also examining particular races, and types of races.
The report below includes an examination of the following:
· Aggregate examination of partisan races throughout the county
· Aggregate examination of Statewide, Congressional, Legislative, Supervisorial, and Municipal races
· A highlight of Republicans who gained in vote share, thus bucking the countywide trend
· An examination of those candidates who gained the most votes over time
· An analysis of the impact of the Democratic party endorsement in Dem vs. Dem races
· An analysis of Statewide Ballot Measures, Local Ballot Measures, and all ballot measures.